Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016

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The Pennsylvania Senate election of 2016 was held on November 8, 2016. Kathryn Spencer was elected to serve between 2017 and 2022. Spencer, a Democrat, defeated her Republican challenger, Hillam Warren, 55% to 45%. The margin of victory was roughly the same as when Spencer was last elected in the 2010 election. Both candidates ran unopposed in their respective party's primary.

Contents

Candidates

Republican Party

Democratic Party

Factors in the election

Fundraising

Spencer raised more money than Warren, raising $24 million to his $18.6 million. Of that, Spencer received $5.7 million from the Democratic Party or other Democrats and $5.6 million from PACs and SIGs, while Warren received $2 million from the Republican Party and $6.2 million from PACs and SIGs. Even when these amounts are stripped from the totals, Spencer still had a slightly larger warchest than Warren, albeit small. Also, Spencer spent her entire warchest during the election, while Warren had some cash on hand at the end of the campaign.


Candidate Money Raised Money Spent Cash on hand
Kathryn Spencer $24,053,000 $24,053,000 $0
Hillam Warren $18,592,800 $18,000,000 $592,800

Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh budget crisis of 2015 was the dominant local issue in the election. The crisis stemmed from the city of Pittsburgh not having sufficient revenue to cover its expenses, seeing a $74m shortfall on a $524m budget.

Spencer spearheaded the legislative initiative to provide federal aid to Pittsburgh, introducing the Relief for Pittsburgh Act, which went on to pass the Senate. However, it was not considered by the House of Representatives and failed to become law. Warren attacked Spencer for this, claiming that she was ineffectual at providing support for her constituents. Spencer fought back by painting the Republican Senate leadership as not caring about the plight of the people of Pittsburgh and using the incident to score political points. Warren pointed to his work as OMB Director in providing support to Pittsburgh through the executive branch, in particular the Ameriscapes program, when Congress failed to help.

The campaign

Spencer's campaign

The feisty incumbent focused on her record on health care, jobs, the environment, and education while assailing her opponent for his association with her corporate enemies: the oil industry, the health insurance industry, and several right-wing anti-tax groups. Instead of running from her record, she ran on it and didn't hesitate to stand by her principles and beliefs. Kathryn Spencer emphasized how she had delivered for the state of Pennsylvania as well as her vision for the country's future. Besides focusing on bread-and-butter issues, Senator Spencer also spoke on issues like infrastructure, a "truce in the culture war," poverty reduction, energy prices and veterans' benefits to appeal to Independents. She surprisingly reached out to "security" Republicans and NRA members during her campaign, and managed to win the endorsement of the NRA as well as gain the votes of a significant minority of Republicans. She was supported by Senator Grace Straka, Mid-Atlantic Legislative Minority Leader Teddy Williams Sr, Senate Majority Leader Calum Daniels, and Speaker Emmett Honeycutt- who appeared with her on the campaign trail. Senator Spencer also campaigned heavily in the conservative "T" areas, besides her home bases in Pittsburgh, Erie, Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, and Philadelphia.

After Senator Spencer defeated Hilliam Warren, who was the son of the outgoing popular President Elizabeth Warren- political analysts immediately sought to study the election. Spencer of course was the clear victor once it became known that she had outspent Hilliam Warren- which resulted from the Republican Party's decision to allocate funds to other close races. Spencer's winning coalition included African-Americans, Hispanics, blue-collar workers, students, women, "Soccer Moms and NASCAR Dads," service workers, and independents; the last of whom ultimately decided the election. Nonetheless, the Philadelphia suburbs went solidly for Hilliam Warren; having reversed their Democratic trends by the success and popularity of President Warren. Senator Spencer and Congressman Warren both ran solid races, making minimal gaffes, and conducted flawless micro-targetting operations.

"I found the Pittsburgh debate quite fascinating, and both candidates argued it well, though probably to a stalemate. Warren pointed out how Spencer couldn't bring home the bacon while he could, Spencer made the Republicans out to look like selfish hacks who cared more about politics than helping the people of Pittsburgh. That was the impression I got from what they said.

Also interesting was that Spencer, who on issues like foreign policy, gun control or the military, could have fought Warren on his own turf, decided instead to rack up the points with her base. Given the demographics, this was probably the best strategy, and if she seemed like a moderate at the start of the campaign she certainly didn't look like one by the end." -Professor Andrew Stephenson of Australian National University's Institute for Anglo-American Politics.

Warren's campaign

TBC

Polling
Type Date Spencer Warren
Half Poll [1] 2016 45% 43%
Pre Poll [2] 2016 45% 41%
Pop Poll [3] 2016 54% 33%1
Pop Poll [4] 2013 63% 34%1

Footnotes

  • 1 Percentage of voters who disapproved of Spencer

Election results
2016 Senate election, Pennsylvania
Party Candidate Votes  % ±%
Democratic Kathryn Spencer (I) 3,572,216 54.83% +0.24%
Republican Hillam Warren 2,943,414 45.17% +0.18%
Majority 628,802 9.65%
Turnout 6,515,630
Democratic hold Swing +0.05%

See also

External links

United States Senate Elections
2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | 2022 | 2024 | 2026 | 2028
See also: Elections | House | Senate | Governors | President
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