Planning for Peak Oil (22-Aug-07)
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Full article: Planning for Peak Oil (22-Aug-07)
It is believed that 64 of the 90 oil-producing countries of the world have already passed their peak production level, so it is vital that planners develop strategies to deal with the problems associated with a global oil shortage and increasing fuel costs.
Newman (2007) has described four different scenarios predicted by experts demonstrating the impacts upon a city afflicted by the peak oil crisis. Some experts predict that there would be an absolute collapse of society; others anticipate the ruralisation of our cities. A further theory addresses “The Divided City” in which the wealthy would live in the inner city with energy-efficient buildings, within walking distance of everything, whereas the lower-income groups would live in the outer suburbs where transport is unaffordable. The final scenario is that of the “Resilient, Sustainable, Solar City” made up of energy-efficient buildings, linked to other suburbs by electric transit.
Newman predicts it to be more likely for cities to adapt to the peak oil crisis with new urban technology and lifestyles rather than a dramatic change in the habitat where approximately half of the world’s population currently live.
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Planning for Peak Oil
Posted By eawaters On August 22, 2007 @ 2:55 pm In Environment, Energy | No Comments
Given the uncertainty of the world’s future oil supply, it is important for planners to develop a strategy for addressing problems associated with a global oil shortage and increasing fuel costs. Similar to strategies for minimising climate change by reducing carbon emissions, planners need to confront the possibility of an oil shortage, which will have an effect on transport, industry, food security and our lifestyles. Globally, cities need to reduce their need for oil to improve their resiliency against a peak oil crisis.
It has been reported widely that a Peak Oil Crisis is imminent with some experts predicting that it will happen this year, whereas Shell and Exxon-Mobile forecast sometime after 2025 (Koppelaar, cited in Johnston 2007). Crooks (2007) reported that there are 90 oil-producing countries globally, 64 of which are thought to have passed their peak production level and 60 of these are in terminal production decline. As oil is a finite resource, a long-term supply is doubtful, especially when the most technologically advanced oil companies such as Exxon-Mobile, Shell and BP are finding it increasingly difficult to extract it (Strahan, cited in Berlin).
A peak oil crisis is particularly concerning for Australian cities, like US and Canadian cities which have the highest average fuel usage per capita. As 90 per cent of Australians own a car, changes in the price of fuel impacts dramatically on the amount of money we spend on transport (Denniss, 2007). Experts reported their fears of “Transport Poverty” on the ABC Radio in June, saying that as the cost of fuel rises, due to a decline in the production of oil, transport to and from work becomes unaffordable for the lower income earner who therefore quit their job. “On the outskirts of Melbourne alone, at least 20,000 families earn less than $500 a week but run more than two cars” mentioned ABC reporter Jane Cowan. From Murdoch University in Perth, Sustainability Consultant and Transport Planner Peter Newman said that rising oil prices will have the worst effect on Melbourne compared to other Australian cities as only 3 per cent of jobs are accessible by public transport outside the inner city area.
It is important to understand the impact a peak oil crisis could have on our urban environment so that we, as planners can develop initiatives to improve a city’s ability to adapt. Newman (2007) describes four possible scenarios predicted by different experts, of a city under a peak oil crisis. Some experts forecast the end of civilisation, saying that a peak oil crisis will mean an absolute collapse of society as we know it. Others anticipate the ruralisation of our cities, with no fuel for food transportation or farm machinery and no oil-based pesticides, the urban population will return to nature for survival. The city will disperse into permaculture communities, adopt urban agriculture or live off small-scale farms. The third case is that of the “The Divided City” with the wealthy population located in the high density inner city area with energy efficient buildings and everything accessible within a short walking distance or by electric transit. The inner city population will be protected from the marginalised lower income groups living in the outer suburbs in a situation similar to that depicted in Med Max Films, where no one is working as transport is unaffordable and therefore crime is rife. The final scenario described by Newman, is that of the “Resilient, Sustainable Solar City” which is made up of energy efficient buildings and genuine walkable activity centres built in each suburb and linked together by quality electric transit. Newman (2007) argues that it is more likely for a city to adapt to a peak oil crisis with new urban technology and lifestyles than dramatically change the habitat in which approximately half of the world’s populations currently live.
As Australian cities average 30GJ of fuel usage per person we depend highly on oil and consequently will be less likely to adapt to a peak oil crisis unlike Chinese and Indian cities which average 2GJ per person (Newman, 2007). To reduce the impact a peak oil crisis will have on our urban environment, we need to reduce our need for fuel as soon as possible to increase our resiliency.
Melbourne 2030’s policies and initiatives, if realized, will improve Melbourne’s resiliency to a peak oil crisis. A more compact city, better management of urban growth and better transport links if implemented appropriately should reduce our need for oil by maintaining local agricultural areas for our food supply, encouraging public transport usage instead of private cars, and reducing the distances we need to travel by increasing the density of our city.
How do you think a peak oil crisis impact on our urban environment?
What else can we do as planners to reduce our dependency on oil?
Is Melbourne 2030 adequately preparing our urban environment for a peak oil crisis?
References:
Cowan, J 2007, “Fears of ‘transport poverty’”, ABC Radio, Wednesday 27th of June 08:09:11 [1] http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2007/s1963291.htm (Viewed 15/08/07)
Johnston, G (2007) “Business Risks and Opportunity from Climate and Oil Vulnerability”, presentation prepared for a Victorian Conference on Peak oil, petrol prices and climate change: Preparing Victoria for the future, June 27, 2007.
Denniss, R 2007, “The potentian social and economic impacts of oil price increases”, prepared in June for VCOSS
Newman, P (2007), “Responding to Peak Oil”, Murdoch University [2] http://www.vcoss.org.au/what-we-do/transport/peak-oil.htm (Viewed 15/08/07)
Berlin, J (2007), “The End Of Oil”, Plane and Pilot, V. 43, N. 8, p. 6. (Viewed Proquest 10/08/07)
Crooks, E (2007), “Drip Feed why high oil prices threaten to linger”, Financial Times, 19th July, p. 11. (Viewed Proquest 10/08/07).
Other References:
Go to this link to read about how Cuba survived their peak oil crisis after the collapse of the Soviet Union. [3] http://www.energybulletin.net/13171.html
[4] www.theoildrum.com
- Source: Cities of Theory blog
