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What really caused the eurozone crisis?
World leaders probably spent more time worrying about the eurozone crisis than anything else in 2011.
And that was in the year that featured the Arab Spring, the Japanese tsunami and the death of Osama Bin Laden. What's more, 2012 looks set to be not much different. But as eurozone governments hammer out new rules to limit their borrowing, are they missing the point of the crisis?
* The eurozone has agreed a new "fiscal compact"
* Eurozone leaders have agreed to a tough set of rules - insisted on by Germany - that will limit their governments' "structural" borrowing (that is, excluding any extra borrowing due to a recession) to just 0.5% of their economies' output each year. It will also limit their total borrowing to 3%. These rules are supposed to stop them accumulating too much debt, and make sure there won't be another financial crisis.
* But didn't they already agree to this back in the '90s?
* Hang on a minute. They agreed to exactly the same 3% borrowing limit back in 1997, when the euro was being set up. The "stability and growth pact" was insisted on by German finance minister Theo Waigel (centre of image). What happened?
* So who kept to the rules?
* Italy was the worst offender. It regularly broke the 3% annual borrowing limit. But actually Germany - along with Italy - was the first big country to break the 3% rule. After that, France followed. Of the big economies, only Spain kept its nose clean until the 2008 financial crisis; the Madrid government stayed within the 3% limit every year from the euro's creation in 1999 until 2007. Not only that - of the four, Spain's government also has the smallest debts relative to the size of its economy. Greece, by the way, is in a class of its own. It never stuck to the 3% target, but manipulated its borrowing statistics to look good, which allowed it to get into the euro in the first place. Its waywardness was uncovered two years ago.
* 3/9 Italy
Worst offender
* 5/9 Germany
First to break rules
* 6/9 France
Offender
* 9/9 Spain
Top of the Class
* But the markets have other ideas
* So surely Germany, France and Italy should be in trouble with all that reckless borrowing, while Spain should be reaping the rewards of its virtue? Well, no. Actually Germany is the "safe haven" - markets have been willing to lend to it at historically low interest rates since the crisis began. Spain on the other hand is seen by markets as almost as risky as Italy. So what gives?
* So what really caused the crisis?
* There was a big build-up of debts in Spain and Italy before 2008, but it had nothing to do with governments. Instead it was the private sector - companies and mortgage borrowers - who were taking out loans. Interest rates had fallen to unprecedented lows in southern European countries when they joined the euro. And that encouraged a debt-fuelled boom.
* Good news for Germany...
* All that debt helped finance more and more imports by Spain, Italy and even France. Meanwhile, Germany became an export power-house after the eurozone was set up in 1999, selling far more to the rest of the world (including southern Europeans) than it was buying as imports. That meant Germany was earning a lot of surplus cash on its exports. And guess what - most of that cash ended up being lent to southern Europe.
* ...bad news for southern Europe
* But debts are only part of the problem in Italy and Spain. During the boom years, wages rose and rose in the south (and in France). But German unions agreed to hold their wages steady. So Italian and Spanish workers now face a huge competitive price disadvantage. Indeed, this loss of competitiveness is the main reason why southern Europeans have been finding it so much harder to export than Germany.
* ...and a nasty dilemma
* So to recap, government borrowing - which has ballooned since the 2008 global financial crisis - had very little to do with creating the current eurozone crisis in the first place, especially in Spain (Greece's government is the big exception here). So even if governments don't break the borrowing rules this time, that won't necessarily stop a similar crisis from happening all over again.
Spain and Italy are now facing nasty recessions, because no-one wants to spend. Companies and mortgage borrowers are too busy repaying their debts to spend more. Exports are uncompetitive. And now governments - whose borrowing has exploded since the 2008 financial crisis savaged their economies - have agreed to drastically cut their spending back as well. But... * Cut spending... * ...and you are pretty sure to deepen the recession. That probably means even more unemployment (already over 20% in Spain), which may push wages down to more competitive levels - though history suggests this is very hard to do. Even so, lower wages will just make people's debts even harder to repay, meaning they are likely to cut their own spending even more, or stop repaying their debts. And lower wages may not even lead to a quick rise in exports, if all of your European export markets are in recession too. In any case, you can probably expect more strikes and protests, and more nervousness in financial markets about whether you really will stay in the euro. * Don't cut spending... * ...and you risk a financial collapse. The amount you borrow each year has exploded since 2008 due to economic stagnation and high unemployment. But your economy looks to be chronically uncompetitive within the euro. So markets are liable to lose confidence in you - they may fear your economy is simply too weak to support your ballooning debtload. Meanwhile, other European governments may not have enough money to bail you out, and the European Central Bank says its mandate doesn't allow it to. And if they won't lend to you, why would anyone else?
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Mama Solis: You think she cheating on you ( Carlos nods His eyes tea R think so ( He ) Carlos: I breaks down Mama Solis looks at him and gets up as if she going to comfort her hurt child But Mama Solis slaps him across the face Mama Solis: We can talk ) about your problems But I not going to have any of that ( some Spanish words Carlos: Sorry mama ( Mama ) Solis sits down She coming up with a plan Mama Solis: Do you have any ) proof Carlos: No No it just a feeling Mama Solis: I had that feeling with your father and that whore waitress And I was right Always trust your feelings Carlos: So what do I do Mama Solis: You don do anything I take care of it Carlos: Thank you Mama Mama Solis: I sorry I had to hit you But we strong people and we don cry about our problems ( She looks behind her out the window at Gabrielle Mama Solis: We find ways ) to fix them ( Shots of groups of two people patrolling Wisteria Lane ) Mary Alice Voiceover: Whilst the residents of Wisteria Lane kept up their patrols In an effort to prevent future break-ins Lynette hatched a plan to break her children into Barcliff Academy House-The Twin ( The twins are fast asleep in bed when their mom wakes them up ) Lynette: Boys Wake up (She prods Preston to wake him and then pulls Porter by the ankles out from under the covers Lynette: You going to have ) some fun today ( Sounds of complaint from the boys who just want to go back to sleep ) Lynette: ( to Preston ) Hey Preston: Hi Lane-Outside Scavo ( We see the twins are doing lots of star jumps Next we see them racing down the street and Lynette rides past them on a bike ( encouraging ) Lynette: them to run faster ) Come on I got you Beat ( Next we see the boys doing sprints back and fore touching the ground when they reach each end Next they dragging their mother along the ground on a sled as she shouts encouragement to them to pull Lynette: Yes yes harder ) come on ( next we see the boys Digging in the Scavo backyard There are multiple shots each with the boys a little further into the hole We see Lynette lying on a sun lounger reading and drinking iced tea as the boys complain ) Preston: Mom We tired Porter: How Much longer do we have to do this Lynette: I can still see your heads The pool not deep enough ( The boys heads pop up over the edge of the hole Once they realise they getting a pool they start digging again with no complaints Lynette smiles she knew they fall for that trick ) ( It the twins meeting day The headmaster and Lynette stand outside the room the boys are in watching them Headmaster: Are ) your boys usually so docile ( We see the boys They both sitting quietly at a table One of the boys eyes are drooping and the other head is practically on the table Lynette: They always a little ) shy at first ( One of the twins gets hit on the head with a ball He doesn even move Lynette: Look at ) that con Centration Porter loves his puzzles Headmaster: Hmm ( Lynette smiles pleased her plan worked ) ( Gabrielle mobile goes off She pulls it out of her purse and reads the text message says " meet me It ;at the motel" ;looks back at her mother Gabrielle law and decides to leave ) Gabrielle: Mama I be right back I going to the store ( Mama Solis looks at her as she leaves ) Lane-Outside Solis ( Gabrielle puts her sunglasses on and is about to leave when Mama Solis runs after her -she not going to leave her alone ) Mama Solis: Gabrielle I coming with you I wanna make some Tamale for Carlos Gabrielle: You know Juanita I not going to the supermarket I going to the lingerie store Mama Solis: Good I need some bras Gabrielle: I may be a while And I may get a facial Mama Solis: I have a face ( Gabrielle gives up and let her mother in law into the car Lane -Outside Delfino house ) ( Mike Is moving boxes out of the back of his truck ) Susan: Hey Mike Mike: Hey how s it going Susan: Good I just came by to say hello Mike: ( joking ) Hello ( Susan gives a little laugh then launches into why she really came over Susan: So you member that ) cop from the neighbourhood watch meeting He agreed to run a fingerprint check on the screwdriver I found at Mrs Fome house Mike: He did ( He puts the box down was taken Susan: Still ) Nothing somebody broke in it is a crime So the weird thing is the cop asked me out On a date Mike: Oh Susan: And I sort of said yes I was sort of curious what you thought about that ( Mike looks confused and uncomfortable to be talking about this He goes back to working under the bonnet of his car so he doesn have to face her Mike: You asking my permission ) to go out with him Susan: No No I just uh was wondering your opinion Mike: I don really have one ( Susan seems disappointed by this Susan: Okay Great Fine Thank you ) Mike: Susan wait Wait I sorry My life it just ah really complicated right now- Susan: You don have to explain ( She walks away ) Mike: Susan Susan: ( over her shoulder ) It complicated I get it Mike is angry at ( himself He throws his rag down He goes into the garage and moves the box again Behind it we see a rack of tools One of his set of screwdrivers is missing ) House-Living ( Bree knocks on the door Bree: ( The ) Paul Door is open so she enters and sees Zach sitting on the floor with his back to her moving a scrubbing brush repeatedly over the same spot ) Bree: Oh hi Zachery I sorry The door was open and- Zach: ( quietly without turning around It okay You can come ) in Bree: Is your father here We were scheduled to do a patrol today Zach: He had to go out of town Again Bree: Oh Well I guess I can do it by myself ( She stops and looks around the room ) Bree: Wow this place is just immaculate Zach: My mom liked things cle An Bree: Zach she would be very proud of you ( Gasps when she sees what Zach is scrubbing at ) What happened to your varnish Zach: It where my mother died They messed up the floor trying to get out the blood Bree: Oh ( Bree can believe what she seeing ) Zach: I ll let my dad know you stopped by ( Bree is really heartbroken By what she sees ) Bree: Zach do you have any plans for dinner Store ( Gabrielle is wandering around the store not really shopping looking at her watch Mama Solis is behind her Mama Solis: So you shop a ) lot huh ( Gabrielle looks through a Display of knickers ) Gabrielle: Yeah So Mama Solis: Most women that shop a lot it because they don have anything better to do Gabrielle: What your point Mama Solis: Well if you had children- Gabrielle: ( walks off ) Here we go Mama Solis: I just saying that children give your life purpose You get so busy taking care of them that you don have any time to wonder if you happy Gabrielle: You know Juanita this is so like you I take you on a nice shopping trip and you find ways to upset me Mama Solis: Oh you didn invite me I invited myself ( Gabrielle looks at the time again Mama Solis: You keep looking ) at your watch Is there someplace you have to be Gabrielle: ( a bit too loudly and forcefully ) NO ( They get some strange looks off other women shoppers ) Gabrielle: And for the record I am not one of those women who has a hole in her heart that can only be filled by a baby I like my life A lot It very fulfilling ( She slams a set of lingerie back on the rack and storms off ) Mama Solis ( to other shoppers who were watching the argument my daughter in ) :Excuse law she very fulfilled ( They nod understandingly ) Wisteria Lane -Outside Scavo ( Lynette is refilling the hole the boys dug the previous day Lynette: So he just blew ) you off Susan: I told him Another man asked me out it was the perfect opportunity for Mike to be jeal Ous And nothing Lynette: Well did you bat your eyes You know it doesn work if you don bat your eyes Susan: Honey I batted everything that wasn nailed down I telling you nothing ( Susan offers Lynette a bottle of water ) Lynette: Oh thanks Susan: So what going on there ( Points to the hole Lynette is filling in ) Lynette: Um ( looks at her boys sleeping in two seats in the garden ) Gophers Susan: Wow Lynette: Listen I sorry about Mike I know how much you like him Susan: Aw maybe it my fault Maybe I just imagined an entire relationship with this man that didn exist Lynette: There has been flirting Susan: Yes and the flirting made me think that he was kind and trustworthy and honest and hygienic That how it is with me A guy just smiles at me three times and I picking out wedding china I a mess Lynette: But to be fair that is part of your charm Susan: That what happened with Carl I only dated him a couple of months I filled in the blanks ;I marrie D him It was a disaster Lynette: You think Mike is A Carl in disguise Susan: I What does that mean anyway dunno My life is complicated (we see a man shoes walking through the park The shot pans up and we see it Mike He walking towards a man ( Noah ) sat on a park bench watching children play football ( a soccer to all the Americans Noah: If I wanted ) ) to sit around and wait for nothing I could do it on the can ( Looks at his watch You late What with the ) Face Mike: I screwed up broke into the Fome house I and almost got caught Noah: What almost Mike: I accidentally left something behind with my prints on it Noah: Don you own a pair of gloves Mike: It the suburbs I didn think it would matter Anyway the police are running a check and I in the system I got to pull up sticks before they come looking for me Noah: That a sweet sound ( re the noise of children playing ) laughter like that huh It pisses me off If and when your cover Is blown you disappear Until then you keep fixing the neighbourhood pipes Mike: The more time I spend in this town the more I think we making a mistake These are nice people Noah: My money says one of them isn ( A kid ball rolls up to where they are sitting Policeman: Well ,abercrombie, husband also involving wrongful act, And yet there is a fifth freedom - basic to those four - that we are in danger of losing: the freedom to be one's best. and decided to admit it or not.
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