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From Polychromatic
BARELY a week goes by without a report on the level of confidence among consumers, businesspeople and investors. Optimism is what�s wanted�Keynes talked of the �animal spirits� that influence economic activity. Pessimists are routinely denounced as Jeremiahs. Those who try to bet on falling prices find their activities are restricted.
A cheery disposition may be necessary for societies to function. Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist and Nobel economics laureate, has a chapter in his book �Thinking Fast and Slow� which describes overconfidence as �the engine of capitalism�. No entrepreneur can be sure that his planned investment will succeed but if no one took a risk, new products and jobs would never be created. A certain blindness to the odds may be necessary. According to Mr Kahneman, the chances of an American small business surviving for five years are just 35%. But ask individual entrepreneurs about their prospects and 81% think they have a better than seven-in-ten chance of success.
This self-confidence may be innate, just as most people think they are better-than-average drivers. And it would seem logical that the most optimistic people gravitate towards entrepreneurship. That is good for consumers, who can select from a wider variety of products. Even the failed businesses serve a purpose. Daniel Gross, a journalist, wrote a book claiming that bubbles were good for economies since they leave behind infrastructure (canals, railways, fibre-optic cable) that can last for generations.
But it is hard to make such a case for all bubbles. Anyone who has driven past a row of empty houses in the Irish countryside will realise that optimism can lead to wasteful investment. And Mr Kahneman cites studies that show how overoptimistic chief executives (as measured by the amount of stock they own) were more likely to gear up their balance-sheets and pay too much for acquisitions.
The problem with overoptimism was illustrated by the investment-bank collapses of 2008. The men who reached the top of such risk-taking organisations had, by definition, been successful in their previous bets. They believed this was due to skill, not luck, making them too sanguine about their ability to ride out the crisis.
A further problem with optimism is thus that it is pro-cyclical. The greatest moment of success for optimists will occur at the peak of a boom, when they will feel their instincts have been justified. Previous house-price rises will make buyers more optimistic about borrowing more money; and banks will be more optimistic about the prospect of being repaid.
Financial assets are highly unusual in that rising prices tend to elicit higher demand. Analysts extrapolate recent rapid profits growth into the future, even though profits cannot rise faster than GDP indefinitely. If markets were truly efficient, price-earnings ratios should be lower than average at the top of the cycle, since investors should anticipate a reversion to the mean. Instead, high p/e ratios and rapid profits growth tend to go together.
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Is it necessary to keep a food diary Is it unrealistic to count calories for the rest of your life or is that just part of the price you pay for a better body Youe about to learn the answers to these questions and discover a simple solution for keeping track of your food intake without having to crunch numbers every day or become a fanatic about your food In many popular diet books alories don countis a frequently repeated theme Other popular programs such as Bill Phillip's "Body For Life" allude to the importance of energy intake versus energy output but recommend that you count ortionsrather than caloriesbr /> Phillips wrote "There aren't many people who can keep track of their calorie intake for an extended period of time As an alternative I recommend counting 'portions' A portion of food is roughly equal to the size of your clenched fist or the palm of your hand Each portion of protein or carbohydrate typically contains between 100 and 150 calories For example one chicken breast is approximately one portion of protein and one medium-sized baked potato is approximately one portion of carbohydrate" Phillips makes a good point that trying to count every single calorie - in the literal sense - can drive you crazy and is probably not realistic as a lifestyle for the long term It's one thing to count portions instead of calories that is at least acknowledging the importance of portion control However it's another altogether to deny that calories matter Yes calories do count Any diet program that tells you "calories don't count" or you can "eat all you want and still lose weight" is a diet you should avoid The truth is that line is a bunch of baloney designed to make a diet sound easier to follow Anything that sounds like work such as counting calories eating less or exercising tends to scare away potential customers But the law of calorie balance is an unbreakable law of physics: Energy in versus energy out dictates whether you will gain lose or maintain your weight Period I believe that it's very important to develop an understanding of and a respect for portion control and the law of calorie balance I also believe it's an important part of nutrition education to learn how many calories are in the foods you eat on a regular basis including (and perhaps especially) how many calories are in the foods you eat when you dine at restaurants The law of calorie balance says: To maintain your weight you must consume the same number of calories you burn To gain weight you must consume more calories than you burn To lose weight you must consume fewer calories than you burn If you only count portions or if you haven't the slightest clue how many calories you're eating it's a lot more likely that you'll eat more than you realize (Or you might take in fewer calories than you should which triggers your body "starvation mode" and causes your metabolism to shut down) So how do you balance practicality and realistic expectations with a nutrition program that gets results Here's a solution that a happy medium between strict calorie counting and just guessing: Create a menu using an EXCEL spreadsheet or your favorite nutrition software Crunch all the numbers including calories protein carbs and fats Once you have your daily menu print it stick it on your refrigerator (and/or in your daily planner) and you now have an eating "goal" for the day including a caloric target That is my definition of "counting calories" -- creating a menu plan you can use as a daily guide not necessarily writing down every morsel of food you eat for the rest of your life If youe really ambitious keeping a nutrition journal for at least 4-12 weeks is a great idea and an incredible learning experience but all you really need to get started on the road to a better body is one good menu on paper If you get bored eating the same thing every day you can create multiple menus or just exchange foods using your one menu as a template Using this method you really only need to count calories once when you create your menus After you've got a knack for calories from this initial discipline of menu planning then you can estimate portions in the future and get a pretty good (and more educated) ballpark figure So what the bottom line Is it really necessary to count every calorie to lose weight No But it IS necessary to eat fewer calories then you burn Whether you count calories and eat less than you burn or you don count calories and eat less than you burn the end result is the same you lose weight Which would you rather do: Take a wild guess or increase your chance for success with some simple menu planning I think the right choice is obvious Copyright 2005 Tom Venuto Tom Venuto is a certified personal trainer natural bodybuilder and author of the #1 best selling diet e-book "Burn the Fat Feed The Muscle You can get info on Tom's e-book at: To get Tom's free monthly e-zine visit internetional long or short? 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