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BARELY a week goes by without a report on the level of confidence among consumers, businesspeople and investors. Optimism is what�s wanted�Keynes talked of the �animal spirits� that influence economic activity. Pessimists are routinely denounced as Jeremiahs. Those who try to bet on falling prices find their activities are restricted.

A cheery disposition may be necessary for societies to function. Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist and Nobel economics laureate, has a chapter in his book �Thinking Fast and Slow� which describes overconfidence as �the engine of capitalism�. No entrepreneur can be sure that his planned investment will succeed but if no one took a risk, new products and jobs would never be created. A certain blindness to the odds may be necessary. According to Mr Kahneman, the chances of an American small business surviving for five years are just 35%. But ask individual entrepreneurs about their prospects and 81% think they have a better than seven-in-ten chance of success.

This self-confidence may be innate, just as most people think they are better-than-average drivers. And it would seem logical that the most optimistic people gravitate towards entrepreneurship. That is good for consumers, who can select from a wider variety of products. Even the failed businesses serve a purpose. Daniel Gross, a journalist, wrote a book claiming that bubbles were good for economies since they leave behind infrastructure (canals, railways, fibre-optic cable) that can last for generations.

But it is hard to make such a case for all bubbles. Anyone who has driven past a row of empty houses in the Irish countryside will realise that optimism can lead to wasteful investment. And Mr Kahneman cites studies that show how overoptimistic chief executives (as measured by the amount of stock they own) were more likely to gear up their balance-sheets and pay too much for acquisitions.

The problem with overoptimism was illustrated by the investment-bank collapses of 2008. The men who reached the top of such risk-taking organisations had, by definition, been successful in their previous bets. They believed this was due to skill, not luck, making them too sanguine about their ability to ride out the crisis.

A further problem with optimism is thus that it is pro-cyclical. The greatest moment of success for optimists will occur at the peak of a boom, when they will feel their instincts have been justified. Previous house-price rises will make buyers more optimistic about borrowing more money; and banks will be more optimistic about the prospect of being repaid.

Financial assets are highly unusual in that rising prices tend to elicit higher demand. Analysts extrapolate recent rapid profits growth into the future, even though profits cannot rise faster than GDP indefinitely. If markets were truly efficient, price-earnings ratios should be lower than average at the top of the cycle, since investors should anticipate a reversion to the mean. Instead, high p/e ratios and rapid profits growth tend to go together.

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    • The prizes of life are at the end of each journey, not near the beginning; and it is not given to me to know how many steps are necessary in order to reach my goal. Failure I may still encounter at the thousandth step

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      On two successive days, the world's ten largest pharmaceutical companies of Lilly (LLY.NYSE) in China were published in two for the capacity investment.Yesterday, Lilly China in Suzhou in the second factory is formal put into production, insulin production capacity overall expansion.

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      China will become the largest economy in Shenzhen Special Zone News  :as HSBC China head, you said many times that China is the emerging markets strategy core ,from which to understand the strategic meaning,louboutin? Huang Bijuan  :for every market ,every business we will use the 5 criteria to measure the day after ,economic potential ,and global connection degree of correlation ,profitability ( return on equity ) ,burberry soldes,benefit ( cost-effectiveness ratios ) and mobility ( loan-to-deposit ratio) .
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      HSBC in mainland China for the local registration, profit increased year by year ,the group profit contribution is also growing .The latest semi-annual report shows ,HSBC in mainland China of $1800000000 ,equivalent to 15% of the whole world ,Asia-Pacific area 26% ,louis vuitton pas cher.
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      In your opinion ,the current ( ,) industry development opportunities and challenges  ?Huang Bijuan  :according to HSBC Global Research team prediction ,the Chinese economy in the next few years will still maintain high speed growth .
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      Economic globalization has entered a new stage, China depend on trade ,investment ,financing ability .According to HSBC predicts ,to 2015 ,China trade will hit $6 ,growing at a compound annual rate of 18% .
      At the same time ,China trade surplus is more into the overseas market ,in which more than 80% of the amount of other parts of Asia ,Latin America ,Africa and other emerging markets .Therefore ,in providing cross-border financing and financial advisory services to banks will have a brilliant future .
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      RMB internationalization brought opportunity cannot be ignored likewise .HSBC is expected RMB will become one of three major international trade settlement currency ,Hongkong offshore RMB deposits and debt business development is very rapid also ,maillot de foot.
      This will provide banks ,especially the international banks to develop trade finance services provided vast space ,hollister.China banking industry in the world has achieved the progress of strength increase obviously attract people .
      As for the challenge ,louboutin,there are mainly two aspects: on the one hand is the international ,domestic capital increasingly stringent regulatory requirements ,in order to increase the bank system ability to resist risks ,these regulations will have on the Chinese banking industry put forward higher requirements for risk management ,that is to create a more steady ,prudent operation environment  ;on the other hand is how to continue enhance service to adapt to China rapid economic growth on innovation ,diversified financial services needs ,including the needs of enterprises and residents .
      The marketization of interest rate will aggravate the competition of the banking industry of Shenzhen Special Zone News  : interest rate market is the Chinese bank industry in the future must take the reform pace ,as in the international financial market has experienced bankers on this trend ,you have what view  ?Huang Bijuan  :after years of development ,China in the process of interest rate liberalization has achieved some results .
      Foreign currency deposit and lending rates in 2004 before the end of the year has been unlocked, RMB loan interest rate allowed in the benchmark lending rate floating above ,allowing the renminbi deposit rates downward float ,money market interest rate pricing becomes more and more commercialized .
      As the deepening of China financial reform is a key step ,steadily promote market-oriented interest rate reform has been incorporated into the Twelfth Five-Year Plan ,abercrombie paris,the internationalization of the RMB will make the marketization of interest rate in the next few years to accelerate .
      This would give banks bring some challenges .Other countries experience shows that ,in the deposit and loan interest rates after unlocking ,louboutin pas cher,bank for savings and raise deposit interest rates to attract customers and reduce loan interest rate competition will intensify ,spreads may thus be narrowed .
      All these questions need to save China banking industry ,to prepare .Introduction of characters Huang Bijuan  :incumbent HSBC Group General Manager ,HSBC (China) Co., Ltd,abercrombie. president and chief executive officer of HSBC China ,at the same time as the executive director of the board .
      Huang Bijuan graduated from University of Hong Kong in 1983, was awarded the Bachelor of social science .With over 25 years in the Greater China region and the Asia-Pacific region is engaged in commercial banking and investment banking working experience ,burberry.
      Huang Bijuan joined the group for nearly 20 years ,from the most basic of syndicated loan manager to start, the capital market manager ,peuterey,Greater China director of global debt issuance ,Bank of Hongkong executive director and other staff, in January of this year on personal occupation career to new heights was appointed general manager of the HSBC group ,peuterey outlet.
      disclaimer this article represents the views of the author, has nothing to do with hexun.com .And the news website the statement ,the neutral ,it contains the content the accuracy ,reliability or integrity of any express or implied warranty .
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      Upon completion of all 300000 human       according to the Municipal Standing Committee, executive vice mayor Huang Qifan said, HP (Chongqing) and Foxconn base (Chongqing) base in Chongqing, in recent years to form a lot of talent demand,hollister pas cher.
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      &nbsp,franklin marshall; &nbsp,louboutin pas cher; &nbsp,abercrombie; "to the development of education in Chongqing is a very good promotion, many enterprises in the future will also work with HP, Foxconn's cooperation, will create many jobs."Huang Qifan said.
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      University students employment city nearest   &nbsp,abercrombie;   HP,moncler, Foxconn computer project settled in the West Wing Park, University City students happy.Many people said, after graduation to HP, Foxconn job,abercrombie, do not have to go along.
      &nbsp,louis vuitton;     yesterday, responsible for HP projects related to government officials, are also disclosed to reporters HP in Chongqing project operation.For example,abercrombie france, from Shanghai to Chongqing HP global call center, currently running.
      Call center function mainly through telephone or the Internet to the global product sales per employee per year, which will be completed in 1000000 dollars in turnover, although the task is heavy,air jordan, but the income is very considerable.
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